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March 9, 2020—Yields on ten-year Treasuries dropped below 50 basis points (bps) today for the first time in history as COVID-19 fears spread. While we cannot rule out a recession, given the uncertainties associated with the virus and its impact on economic activity, we believe today’s low yields are less about long-term growth forecasts and more about expectations of further Federal Reserve easing, risk aversion, and liquidity preferences.
We expect global equity performance will be below its long-term median level, but we believe investors should hold equity allocations in line with policy targets. Within equities, we see opportunities in developed value, developed small caps, and China. We doubt European and emerging markets ex China equities will outperform, and we believe the share of […]
We expect direct lending and European opportunistic private credit funds will outperform their long-term averages because of high asset yields and the pull back in credit availability among traditional lenders. We like structured credits, particularly high-quality collateralized loan obligation debt, and we expect high-yield bonds will outperform leveraged loans. But we remain neutral on high […]
We expect REIT and public infrastructure performances will improve, given undemanding valuations and our view on interest rates. We believe private infrastructure funds will perform well, and we think nuclear energy will emerge as a small but important opportunity. US REIT Performance Should Rebound in 2024 Sehr Dsani, Investment Director, Capital Markets Research, and Marc […]
We expect the US dollar and gold will more or less hold their values, given our economic expectation and the many geopolitical risks. We believe the yen will appreciate, and we expect the thawing crypto winter will fully transition to a spring. The US Dollar and Gold Should Hold Their Value in 2024 Sean Duffin, […]
A universal approach to portfolio construction can help schemes achieve required return targets whilst adding additional upside from alpha generation; reduce risk through true diversification; and generate sufficient income to comfortably meet both planned and unplanned cashflow needs.
While many plan sponsors have adapted to dramatic interest rate swings by strategically hedging their liability interest rate risk, some balk when interest rates are low. But failing to hedge long-duration liabilities with long-duration assets can expose sponsors to significant downside risk.
Before COVID-19 most hospitals generated liquidity from their operating model. In our May 2020 survey of 27 hospital systems, we learned that COVID-19 has driven hospitals to search for liquidity from multiple sources, including, for some, the investment portfolio.
In 2023, US private equity (PE) performed better than venture capital (VC), but returns for both asset classes trailed those of the public markets, which rebounded strongly from a tough 2022. For calendar year 2023, the Cambridge Associates LLC US Private Equity Index® returned 9.3% and the Cambridge Associates LLC US Venture Capital Index® returned […]
An increasing number of institutions and families are electing to spend down their assets during a limited time period. Why? Some causes—such as climate justice—feel urgent to donors and they respond with more immediate action. Other donors believe greater financial support today through a spend-down fund compounds their impact, leading to better outcomes in totality compared to providing […]