Climbing the wall of worries is getting tougher. There is room for markets to progress, but caution is required at this stage in the cycle. Markets must overcome four main forces: monetary policy tightening, US dollar strength, a China growth slowdown, and trade friction.
July 2018
We don’t believe so. US small caps have benefited from cyclical tailwinds this year, including strengthening US growth and their more domestic orientation (helpful as the dollar strengthens and trade frictions increase), with small-cap earnings estimated to grow twice as fast as large-cap earnings in 2018.
July 2018
No, MSCI index inclusion will not trigger a bull market in Chinese A-shares.* Given the very modest initial weights and the lack of clarity on future increases, we doubt that index-driven flows will drive share prices meaningfully higher.
June 2018
While trade finance is among the oldest forms of institutionalized credit, it has only recently become an accessible market for most institutional investors. Providing high liquidity, good return premiums over cash, and a predictable risk profile, it can play a valuable role in portfolio strategy. However, as a fairly new option for most investors, its […]
May 2018
Not in the United States. As short rates have increased and the yield curve has flattened, US T-bills offer more appeal than they have in some time (and short-dated Treasuries even more so).
May 2018
Advice in Brief The global economy and capital markets are constantly evolving. From the industrial revolution in the 1700s, to information technology in the last 45 years, waves of innovation have had profound implications for society, the global economy, and investors. At the same time, debt cycles, demographics, and productivity trends all have a slow-moving, […]
April 2018
Not necessarily. Although we believe the announced tariffs are a negative for the global economy, recent market moves have probably more than baked in the pain they will cause.
April 2018
Yes. Inflationary pressures in the United States appear to be building, as positively trending wages, expansionary fiscal policies, and protectionist trade barriers feed into a humming economy.
March 2018