Investors should stay calm. While the Wuhan coronavirus is still spreading, the virus remains less deadly and more contained than the SARS outbreak of 2002–03. Looking at other epidemics, history suggests that after an initial sharp hit, economies and markets typically recover quickly.
January 2020
Yes, in the near term, but longer term we expect trade, tech, and possibly finances to decouple further. The “Phase One” trade agreement provides a much-needed truce in the tariff escalation between the United States and China, as trade uncertainty has weighed on financial conditions and further slowed global trade. While some progress has been […]
January 2020
The start of a new year and a new decade is an opportune time to reflect on megatrends that will be consequential over the next ten years. In this edition of VantagePoint, we focus on three such trends and their investment implications: disruption, demographics, and decoupling.
January 2020
We see opportunities to deploy capital in some niche areas of the investment landscape and reshape (or at least re-evaluate) some areas of the portfolio. Simultaneously, we are closely monitoring the lurch toward protectionist trade policies and their impact on global economic activity.
December 2019
Fish, but only if investors can accept very lumpy returns.
December 2019
No, we don’t think so. While euro area economic activity has weakened meaningfully, with real GDP growth falling to its lowest annual pace (1.1%) since 2013 in third quarter, strong equity returns aren’t dependent on robust economic growth. Ultimately, we continue to like the bloc as part of a risk-controlled overweight to global ex US equities funded from US equities.
December 2019
In 2019, returns were driven less by what went right than by what did not go wrong. We highlight ten themes for 2020, with a focus on key macro questions, emerging opportunities, and risks.
November 2019
As economic growth slows, manufacturing contracts, and major central banks start to ease monetary policy anew, investors need to consider what policy options the world has left in the event this slowdown becomes a recession. In this edition of VantagePoint, we look to the 1930s for some answers, while realizing that intervening changes to the global financial system rule out an exact repeat of that period.
October 2019