We expect liquid credit returns to decline due to low credit spreads and anticipated Fed easing. Direct lending returns should moderate but continue to outperform their liquid counterparts. Meanwhile, insurance-linked securities will continue to benefit from strong demand, and increased transaction volumes should support both specialty finance and credit opportunities managers. In emerging markets, currencies […]
December 2024
We expect public infrastructure equities to perform similarly to developed market equities in 2025, propelled by supportive regulations for energy transition and strong demand for power infrastructure to fuel AI. While we believe US REITs should underperform US equities, US private real estate funds raised in 2025 should generate above-average returns, benefiting from distressed deals […]
December 2024
We expect the US dollar rally will ultimately cool, with early strength giving way to modest weakening. Meanwhile, gold returns are likely to moderate in 2025 after a surge in 2024. Emerging markets’ use of stablecoins should support positive crypto returns, driving blockchain innovations and investment opportunities. The US Dollar Rally Should Cool in 2025 […]
December 2024
The trajectory of US debt-to-GDP has sharply increased in recent decades, driven by significant fiscal stimulus in response to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and COVID-19 pandemic. Deficit spending remains elevated compared to typical levels outside of economic crises or wars, with official estimates predicting continued escalation, particularly if Trump’s presidential campaign promises are fulfilled. […]
November 2024
Infrastructure investments have generated attractive returns in recent years and helped stabilize portfolios due to their ability to generate inflation-protected returns across various economic environments. The asset class has grown rapidly and offers investors a way to capitalize on secular themes like decarbonization and digitization. Growing demand in areas such as energy transition and telecommunications […]
November 2024
No, we do not expect Japanese mid-/large-cap equities to outperform their global peers despite some supportive factors, such as Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) reforms and inflows from security investment schemes. Japanese equities tend to underperform in global activity slowdowns and contractions, and current valuations do not offer sufficient compensation to bear that risk, given our […]
October 2024
Introduction Aaron Costello, Regional Head for Asia, and Vivian Gan, Associate Investment Director, Capital Markets Research With the global economy showing signs of cooling and Chinese economic momentum remaining weak, the outlook for Asian markets is increasingly mixed. Certain markets have been more resilient, such as India, where domestic growth is still robust, and Taiwan, […]
September 2024
Yes, investors should diversify in a risk-controlled manner, as mega-cap tech stocks have delivered exceptional fundamentals but are expensive and represent an outsized share of the equity markets. Investors should diversify concentration risk by leaning into more attractively valued segments of the market, namely developed markets small-cap and value stocks. Over the last 15 years, […]
September 2024