Global inflation has been higher and more persistent than most economists anticipated. Some inflationary pressures related to the pandemic have started to show signs of easing, but new pressures related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and lockdowns associated with China’s “zero-COVID” policy create new challenges. At the same time, central banks have declared war on […]
May 2022
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced it would raise the target range for the Fed funds rate 50 basis points (bps) to 0.75%–1.00%. It also formalized plans to reduce its $9 trillion balance sheet starting June 1, with an initial monthly cap of $47.5 billion, rising to $95 billion per month on September 1. At that […]
May 2022
No, we do not recommend that investors go long duration in fixed income portfolios. The uncertain inflation outlook and potential for more aggressive policy tightening suggest yields could rise further. That said, we believe investors that are short duration in their fixed income portfolios should increase duration to match their benchmark, given the improved risk/reward […]
April 2022
Yes, but the level of threat varies across asset classes. Higher oil prices are likely to slow economic growth and weigh on corporate profits across many regions, but more so in countries that are large energy importers, where the energy intensity of growth is highest and where governments have the fewest resources to cushion the […]
April 2022
The US housing market has been on a tear in recent years, supported by low interest rates, favorable supply/demand dynamics, and a recent boost from the pandemic-related demand for more space. Investors interested in gaining exposure to the asset class are seeing their choices expand. This publication provides an update on some of the macro […]
April 2022
No. Adoption of policies like the Rooney Rule—a requirement to interview at least one woman or person of color candidate for leadership positions by many companies and institutions—has not substantially improved diversity among leadership ranks. Given this reality, we doubt such policies would encourage greater diversity among investment managers. These policies are not created to […]
March 2022
We don’t think so, as the markets are pricing in more severe conditions than we believe are warranted. The MSCI China Index, which tracks Chinese stocks listed in both Hong Kong and the United States, has sold off sharply thus far in March and is down roughly 25% year-to-date, and over 50% from its February […]
March 2022
As we peer through the fog of war, prospects for a decline in US dollar dominance, durably higher inflation, and persistent heightened geopolitical risk appear on the horizon. However, it can take a long time before ripples either fade out or become waves. And their future path is influenced by their interaction with each other […]
March 2022