We expect liquid credit returns to decline due to low credit spreads and anticipated Fed easing. Direct lending returns should moderate but continue to outperform their liquid counterparts. Meanwhile, insurance-linked securities will continue to benefit from strong demand, and increased transaction volumes should support both specialty finance and credit opportunities managers. In emerging markets, currencies […]
December 2024
Introduction Aaron Costello, Regional Head for Asia, and Vivian Gan, Associate Investment Director, Capital Markets Research With the global economy showing signs of cooling and Chinese economic momentum remaining weak, the outlook for Asian markets is increasingly mixed. Certain markets have been more resilient, such as India, where domestic growth is still robust, and Taiwan, […]
September 2024
Direct investments are often the first point of entry into private investments (PI) for wealthy families. In building out their direct portfolios, many families invest exclusively in a particular region, industry, or business sector. Similarly, entrepreneurial families with highly cash-generative operating businesses—or those who have recently sold a business—may have portfolios that are narrower in […]
July 2024
Today, private investors and wealthy families are facing uncertainties related to economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and private investment exit opportunities. Yet, these same market challenges are serving as tailwinds for certain asset classes, including private credit. In today’s environment, we believe private credit can deliver attractive returns, supported by a strong foundation in protected […]
May 2024
Private credit offers distinct advantages and appeal in a low return environment, but investors should be aware that behind the name is a diverse array of strategies, some more familiar to institutional investors than others, each with idiosyncratic risks. In this report, we describe the broad array of private credit strategies and position them along the risk/return spectrum, review the investment process, discuss expectations for the performance of these strategies in various parts of the economic cycle, and highlight some key risks for investors to consider.
May 2024
For many investors, 2024 started where last year left off. Hopes of an economic soft landing are growing, inflation is slowly receding, and last year’s winners (e.g., mega-cap growth stocks) continue to rip higher. Credit markets have seen more muted gains after a gangbuster fourth quarter 2023, but strong demand and rising confidence mean issuance […]
April 2024
Over the past decade, executives overseeing corporate defined benefit (DB) pension plans have experienced significant regulatory reform and a full reversal of investment conditions. While rising liabilities once offset asset gains, the opposite is now true. Yet many organizations haven’t recalibrated their approach to plan management in response, leaving them exposed to unnecessary costs and […]
January 2024
We expect direct lending and European opportunistic private credit funds will outperform their long-term averages because of high asset yields and the pull back in credit availability among traditional lenders. We like structured credits, particularly high-quality collateralized loan obligation debt, and we expect high-yield bonds will outperform leveraged loans. But we remain neutral on high […]
December 2023