Pandemic Risks and Reactions

February 28, 2020—Global equities sold off sharply this week as cases of COVID-19 spread rapidly outside of China (particularly in Korea, Italy, and the Middle East). While the spike in volatility has been abrupt, the current market sell-off is arguably a needed correction.

February 2020

Coronavirus Outbreak: Initial Thoughts and Implications

Investors should stay calm. While the Wuhan coronavirus is still spreading, the virus remains less deadly and more contained than the SARS outbreak of 2002–03. Looking at other epidemics, history suggests that after an initial sharp hit, economies and markets typically recover quickly.

January 2020

Will the “Phase One” Trade Deal Bring More Stable Relations Between the United States and China?

Yes, in the near term, but longer term we expect trade, tech, and possibly finances to decouple further. The “Phase One” trade agreement provides a much-needed truce in the tariff escalation between the United States and China, as trade uncertainty has weighed on financial conditions and further slowed global trade. While some progress has been […]

January 2020

VantagePoint: Disruption, Demographics, and Decoupling

The start of a new year and a new decade is an opportune time to reflect on megatrends that will be consequential over the next ten years. In this edition of VantagePoint, we focus on three such trends and their investment implications: disruption, demographics, and decoupling.

January 2020

What Risks and Opportunities Are You Focused on as We Enter 2020?

We see opportunities to deploy capital in some niche areas of the investment landscape and reshape (or at least re-evaluate) some areas of the portfolio. Simultaneously, we are closely monitoring the lurch toward protectionist trade policies and their impact on global economic activity.

December 2019

With Trend-Following Funds Down Sharply This Fall, Should Investors Fish or Cut Bait?

Fish, but only if investors can accept very lumpy returns.

December 2019

A Summary of Climate Change Science for Investors

We are investors, not scientists; however, investors would be wise to consider climate science in their investment decision-making process.

December 2019

Liability-Hedging Strategies for US Plan Sponsors in the Low Interest Rate Era

While many plan sponsors have adapted to dramatic interest rate swings by strategically hedging their liability interest rate risk, some balk when interest rates are low. But failing to hedge long-duration liabilities with long-duration assets can expose sponsors to significant downside risk.

November 2019