We expect private investment performance to improve, as the impact from overinvestment in 2021–22 recedes. The asset class’s long-term performance should continue to attract individual investors and managers are creating pathways for them to more easily access opportunities. While M&A and IPO exit opportunities may improve, we believe the importance of continuation vehicles as an […]
December 2024
We expect California Carbon Allowances (CCAs) to recover from 2024 losses as clarity on supply reductions emerges. Meanwhile, impact private investment flows will favor strategies with faster distributions and commercial validation. Additionally, headwinds for private diverse manager allocations should ease, but the overhang of emerging funds may lead to consolidation or shutdowns, challenging managers. California […]
December 2024
We expect liquid credit returns to decline due to low credit spreads and anticipated Fed easing. Direct lending returns should moderate but continue to outperform their liquid counterparts. Meanwhile, insurance-linked securities will continue to benefit from strong demand, and increased transaction volumes should support both specialty finance and credit opportunities managers. In emerging markets, currencies […]
December 2024
We expect public infrastructure equities to perform similarly to developed market equities in 2025, propelled by supportive regulations for energy transition and strong demand for power infrastructure to fuel AI. While we believe US REITs should underperform US equities, US private real estate funds raised in 2025 should generate above-average returns, benefiting from distressed deals […]
December 2024
We expect the US dollar rally will ultimately cool, with early strength giving way to modest weakening. Meanwhile, gold returns are likely to moderate in 2025 after a surge in 2024. Emerging markets’ use of stablecoins should support positive crypto returns, driving blockchain innovations and investment opportunities. The US Dollar Rally Should Cool in 2025 […]
December 2024
The trajectory of US debt-to-GDP has sharply increased in recent decades, driven by significant fiscal stimulus in response to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and COVID-19 pandemic. Deficit spending remains elevated compared to typical levels outside of economic crises or wars, with official estimates predicting continued escalation, particularly if Trump’s presidential campaign promises are fulfilled. […]
November 2024
Integrating net zero across our firm is a journey, not an event. The way the investment world understands climate has been steadily evolving, and as the industry has developed its thinking, we have been evolving our processes and capabilities. Nearly 20% of our clients by assets have included net zero objectives in their investment policy, […]
November 2024
Infrastructure investments have generated attractive returns in recent years and helped stabilize portfolios due to their ability to generate inflation-protected returns across various economic environments. The asset class has grown rapidly and offers investors a way to capitalize on secular themes like decarbonization and digitization. Growing demand in areas such as energy transition and telecommunications […]
November 2024