Yes, we believe that the euro area’s economy bottomed either in fourth quarter 2023 or first quarter 2024. The abatement of headwinds that saw GDP flatline during 2023 should allow for some expansion in 2024. Nonetheless, the growth impulse is likely to remain muted and growth should underperform the United States. Therefore, despite comparatively subdued […]
April 2024
No. While recent developments may be a sign that bitcoin is gaining credibility, it remains a highly speculative investment that offers no cash flows. Gold—a more stable and defensive option than bitcoin—also offers no yield. Investors looking for portfolio defense should look to long US Treasury securities, which offer reasonable yields and protection in a […]
March 2024
No, we anticipate performance will broaden out beyond mega-cap tech stocks, which have driven US equity performance in recent years. Tech giants are vulnerable to disappointment by the elevated expectations reflected in valuations. Even well-run tech giants that continue to dominate their sectors and maintain high profitability may not deliver strong returns if their stock […]
March 2024
Since 2010, US equities have been unstoppable, outperforming developed markets equities outside the United States (DM ex US) by a whopping 5.5 percentage points (ppts) annually, with few periods of short-lived, intermittent underperformance. Recently, this outperformance has been led by a small set of US tech giants. In this edition of VantagePoint, we review the […]
February 2024
No. Although emerging markets (EM) stocks typically outperform after the onset of Federal Reserve easing, we suspect this episode will be different. The growing chance of a US soft landing—coupled with sluggish growth expectations globally—suggest that cuts could be modest and that the US dollar will hold its value. These conditions do not meaningfully shift […]
February 2024
UK GDP fell by more than expected in fourth quarter 2023, according to new data released on February 15, 2024, which pushed the country into a technical recession. It joined fellow G7 economy, Japan, which had earlier undershot expectations and delivered a second consecutive quarter of negative growth. Despite contrasting fortunes in UK and Japanese […]
February 2024
No, we expect Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will continue to moderate toward central bank target levels in 2024. As a result, we believe key central banks will cut policy rates modestly this year to avoid overtightening. This should support our view that investors should hold a modest overweight to long Treasury bonds. Global inflation […]
February 2024
On January 10, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the trading of spot bitcoin ETFs, roughly ten years after the first application. The approval follows last year’s decision by a US Appeals Court that limited the SEC’s discretion in denying applications. While we doubt this decision will meaningfully impact sophisticated investors in the […]
January 2024