Does a Dovish Fed Doom the US Dollar?
No, we do not think Federal Reserve rate cuts signal a major downturn in the US dollar.
August 2019
Whistling Past the Covenant-Lite Graveyard: A Sanity Check in Practical and Philosophical Terms
The recent shift in common wisdom with respect to covenant-lite loans hearkens the warning to be careful of changing opinions in the face of unchanging facts and steadfast opinions. Many general partners bemoan the incidence of covenant-lite loans, but others do not. Some market participants have come to support covenant-lite loans. Their opinions appear to […]
August 2019
What to Expect From Your Direct Lenders When the Cycle Turns
Direct lending, or senior debt, funds have come to dominate the private credit asset class, capturing significant portfolio allocations and outpacing fundraising of other private credit strategies. However, over the past 18 months, Cambridge Associates has felt enthusiasm for senior debt allocations cool as discussions turn to senior debt funds’ performance through the credit cycle.
July 2019
Profit Margins for US Companies Are Very Strong; Are They Sustainable?
No. While US companies have some defensible profitability advantages, today’s elevated margin levels may be poised for a reversal of fortune.
July 2019
VantagePoint: Third Quarter 2019
In this edition of VantagePoint, we uncover four of the most common inaccuracies we hear about US equities.
July 2019
Could the Equity and Bond Markets Both be Right About the Macro Outlook?
Yes. While equity and bond markets don’t often rise in tandem like they have lately, history suggests that both recent moves could be warranted if central bank stimulus successfully extends the cycle. But that is a big “if”; several moving parts cloud the macro outlook, and markets are assuming that central banks can reverse the recent economic slowdown.
July 2019
Does an Extended US-China Trade War Change the Strategic Investment Case for China?
No. While we do not expect the trade war to end after President Trump and President Xi meet this week at the G20 in Japan, we have not changed our view that investors should consider dedicated allocations to China broadly and A-shares in particular.
June 2019
Has the US-China Trade War Ensnarled the Euro Area?
The seemingly ever-expanding US-China trade war has undercut economic activity in the euro area, challenging earnings expectations and the bloc’s currency.
June 2019