This year may prove to be pivotal in the transition from fossil fuels to renewables. Policy makers, businesses, and investors are accelerating commitments to bring greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to net zero by 2050. The aim is consistent with the 2015 Paris Agreement to “limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, compared […]
February 2022
No, we don’t think so. While bitcoin and gold share some qualities, these two assets are different and should not be viewed as interchangeable in investment portfolios. Bitcoin is much more volatile than gold and has recently been trading more like a pro-risk asset, suffering significant drawdowns during periods of market turmoil. Bitcoin is often […]
February 2022
No. While there is no danger of the fiscal floodgates opening in Europe, the 'traffic-light' coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) looks set to oversee some loosening of the fiscal purse strings in Germany.
December 2021
As we peer over the horizon, we anticipate growth will return to a lower altitude. Read more in our compilation of investment views for 2022.
December 2021
Global equities have returned more to investors than high-quality global bonds in nearly three quarters of the last 30 years. The margin of outperformance during those years has been considerable, averaging 12.5 percentage points. That high historical success rate, along with our view that healthy economic activity will support both positive earnings growth and risk appetite, leads us to expect that equities will yet again outperform high-quality bonds.
December 2021
China’s equity markets have lagged global equities sharply thus far in 2021 in the face of a regulatory crackdown. We expect Chinese equities, particularly China onshore A-shares, to outperform global equities in 2022.
December 2021
Emerging markets ex China equities have underperformed their DM peers this year due, in part, to greater economic and political challenges, which have weighed on sentiment toward the bloc. We expect these issues to persist into next year and are skeptical that EM ex China equities can outperform DM equivalents.
December 2021
Rising inflation and moderating growth are generally associated with a higher risk premium as investors start to price in a potential shift in market regime. In the past, global macro managers have generally benefited from better alpha opportunities that arise from volatility. With this backdrop, we expect macro hedge fund performance to be better than average next year.
December 2021