We don’t believe so. US small caps have benefited from cyclical tailwinds this year, including strengthening US growth and their more domestic orientation (helpful as the dollar strengthens and trade frictions increase), with small-cap earnings estimated to grow twice as fast as large-cap earnings in 2018.
July 2018
No, MSCI index inclusion will not trigger a bull market in Chinese A-shares.* Given the very modest initial weights and the lack of clarity on future increases, we doubt that index-driven flows will drive share prices meaningfully higher.
June 2018
Yes. Inflationary pressures in the United States appear to be building, as positively trending wages, expansionary fiscal policies, and protectionist trade barriers feed into a humming economy.
March 2018
Not in the near term. The current environment of rising, but low, interest rates accompanied by strong earnings growth expectations is supportive for equities.
March 2018
No. The US public equity market remains the largest and most liquid in the world and continues to offer a robust opportunity set for investors.
February 2018
No, most investors should sit tight. The persistence of strong corporate and macroeconomic fundamentals in the face of the recent sell-off and spike in volatility strongly suggests that the duration of the market rout should be limited.
February 2018
We are asked this question on a regular basis, but believe it is fundamentally the wrong question for investors to ask if they are seeking to outperform the market over the long term.
February 2018
Not in our opinion. Recent market leadership by the so-called FAAMG stocks is not extraordinary relative to history, and their valuations and fundamentals, combined with this year’s relatively healthy market breadth, mean that they don’t necessarily present an outsized threat at this time.
August 2017