The US dollar tends to appreciate during two broad economic regimes. One is when the US economy is materially outperforming its global counterparts, attracting capital looking to benefit from the superior US prospects. The other is when growth slows sharply, attracting safe-haven-seeking capital. This is the “dollar smile” model of the currency, and looking at 2022 through this lens suggests some dollar strength may be in store.
December 2021
No. While inflation could continue to run hotter than central banks expect, the US employment situation is improving, and economic growth is unlikely to stagnate.
November 2021
No, we do not think Federal Reserve rate cuts signal a major downturn in the US dollar.
August 2019
The dramatic declines that swept across the crypto space raised questions about the future of these assets and the blockchain technology that underpins them. Yet, in looking across the investment landscape, we see an industry that is developing, not faltering. In this paper, we review recent developments in the industry, highlight our views of the various investment strategies, and discuss a few considerations for investors exploring the space.
February 2019
In our opinion, institutional investors are better served focusing on investing in companies seeking to profit from the development and adoption of blockchain technology and “fintech” more broadly than holding cryptocurrencies directly.
November 2017
Institutional investors should very carefully consider the risks of cryptocurrencies before investing.
October 2017
Answers to our clients’ questions about market action and the market environment in a few paragraphs every two weeks. We are not ready to pronounce the strong dollar cycle dead, but do admit the US dollar is in critical condition. Investors should remain partially unhedged or prepared to ride out a period of currency volatility. […]
August 2017
Answers to our clients’ questions about market action and the market environment in a few paragraphs every two weeks. We still expect a rising US dollar over the coming year or so; however, the currency is entering the final phase of the strong-dollar cycle and investors should be aware that valuations and historical cycles suggest […]
March 2017