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Don’t Expect EM ex China Performance to Impress

Emerging markets ex China equities have underperformed their DM peers this year due, in part, to greater economic and political challenges, which have weighed on sentiment toward the bloc. We expect these issues to persist into next year and are skeptical that EM ex China equities can outperform DM equivalents.

December 2021

Macro Hedge Funds Should Benefit from Improved Opportunities

Rising inflation and moderating growth are generally associated with a higher risk premium as investors start to price in a potential shift in market regime. In the past, global macro managers have generally benefited from better alpha opportunities that arise from volatility. With this backdrop, we expect macro hedge fund performance to be better than average next year.

December 2021

The Dollar Finds Temporary Support

The US dollar tends to appreciate during two broad economic regimes. One is when the US economy is materially outperforming its global counterparts, attracting capital looking to benefit from the superior US prospects. The other is when growth slows sharply, attracting safe-haven-seeking capital. This is the “dollar smile” model of the currency, and looking at 2022 through this lens suggests some dollar strength may be in store.

December 2021

Government Bond Yields Are Likely to Rise as Central Banks Remove Support

Long-dated government bond yields rose in 2021 on strong economic growth and surging inflation. Central banks have maintained their easy money policies despite the rapid recovery in economic conditions, likely keeping yields lower than they would have been otherwise. This may soon change now that several major central banks are starting the process of dialing back support.

December 2021

Inflationary Pressures Will Moderate Some in Second Half

Consumer price inflation is above pre-pandemic trend in the United States and Europe, while producer prices are surging seemingly everywhere. Consistent with consensus forecasts, we expect mounting inflation pressures to ease by second half 2022 as demand for goods abates and supply constraints moderate.

December 2021

Catch My Drift? Active Managers’ Style Tends to Change Over Time

The style bias of actively managed growth and value equity portfolios is not typically static. In this paper, we highlight how the strength of active managers’ style signatures have moved between value and growth and propose a simple fundamental rationale for why this happens.

September 2021

Treasury Bond Yields Plunge to Historic Lows

March 9, 2020—Yields on ten-year Treasuries dropped below 50 basis points (bps) today for the first time in history as COVID-19 fears spread. While we cannot rule out a recession, given the uncertainties associated with the virus and its impact on economic activity, we believe today’s low yields are less about long-term growth forecasts and more about expectations of further Federal Reserve easing, risk aversion, and liquidity preferences.

March 2020

The US Yield Curve Inverted! Should Investors Underweight Risk?

Although an inverted yield curve is not a sign we welcome, it also is not a clear indicator of an imminent equity market downturn. Instead of underweighting risky assets, we suggest investors take this opportunity to refresh plans to manage through the next bear market.

April 2019

Is the United States Set for a Spike in Inflation?

Answers to our clients’ questions about market action and the market environment in a few paragraphs every two weeks. We doubt it. But, price levels are likely to rise gradually in the months ahead, as the rebound in energy commodities continues to impact measurements. Recent inflation data releases have raised concerns about a potential spike, […]

March 2017