Pandemic Risks and Reactions

February 28, 2020—Global equities sold off sharply this week as cases of COVID-19 spread rapidly outside of China (particularly in Korea, Italy, and the Middle East). While the spike in volatility has been abrupt, the current market sell-off is arguably a needed correction.

February 2020

Are You Expecting Another "Tech Wreck" Like 20 Years Ago?

No, we doubt the equity market’s heightened tech concentration will trigger an imminent correction. Rather, tech stocks’ outsized weighting reflects their superior growth and free cash flow this cycle. Amid a lackluster macroeconomic backdrop, historically low discount rates have boosted the appeal of the most profitable and liquid segment of the global equity universe, namely […]

February 2020

Coronavirus Outbreak: Initial Thoughts and Implications

Investors should stay calm. While the Wuhan coronavirus is still spreading, the virus remains less deadly and more contained than the SARS outbreak of 2002–03. Looking at other epidemics, history suggests that after an initial sharp hit, economies and markets typically recover quickly.

January 2020

Will the “Phase One” Trade Deal Bring More Stable Relations Between the United States and China?

Yes, in the near term, but longer term we expect trade, tech, and possibly finances to decouple further. The “Phase One” trade agreement provides a much-needed truce in the tariff escalation between the United States and China, as trade uncertainty has weighed on financial conditions and further slowed global trade. While some progress has been […]

January 2020

VantagePoint: Disruption, Demographics, and Decoupling

The start of a new year and a new decade is an opportune time to reflect on megatrends that will be consequential over the next ten years. In this edition of VantagePoint, we focus on three such trends and their investment implications: disruption, demographics, and decoupling.

January 2020

What Risks and Opportunities Are You Focused on as We Enter 2020?

We see opportunities to deploy capital in some niche areas of the investment landscape and reshape (or at least re-evaluate) some areas of the portfolio. Simultaneously, we are closely monitoring the lurch toward protectionist trade policies and their impact on global economic activity.

December 2019

With Trend-Following Funds Down Sharply This Fall, Should Investors Fish or Cut Bait?

Fish, but only if investors can accept very lumpy returns.

December 2019

Will Weak Economic Data in the Euro Area Undercut Its Equities?

No, we don’t think so. While euro area economic activity has weakened meaningfully, with real GDP growth falling to its lowest annual pace (1.1%) since 2013 in third quarter, strong equity returns aren’t dependent on robust economic growth. Ultimately, we continue to like the bloc as part of a risk-controlled overweight to global ex US equities funded from US equities.

December 2019