No, investors should consider staying the course. Though developments and headlines associated with the United Kingdom’s Article 50 negotiations with the European Union have been and likely will remain fitful, they reflect more the political nature of the process and less the underlying fundamentals of the economy and its listed equities.
August 2018
Yes, but investors should be selective in allocating to credit markets at this point in the cycle, and understand that the overvaluation of many credit assets could make attractive returns hard to come by.
August 2018
Solid fundamentals in most countries should limit the damage. The largest markets are not particularly exposed to the risk of a classic balance-of-payments crisis (like the ones occurring today in a handful of smaller markets, including Turkey and Argentina).
July 2018
Climbing the wall of worries is getting tougher. There is room for markets to progress, but caution is required at this stage in the cycle. Markets must overcome four main forces: monetary policy tightening, US dollar strength, a China growth slowdown, and trade friction.
July 2018
We don’t believe so. US small caps have benefited from cyclical tailwinds this year, including strengthening US growth and their more domestic orientation (helpful as the dollar strengthens and trade frictions increase), with small-cap earnings estimated to grow twice as fast as large-cap earnings in 2018.
July 2018
No, MSCI index inclusion will not trigger a bull market in Chinese A-shares.* Given the very modest initial weights and the lack of clarity on future increases, we doubt that index-driven flows will drive share prices meaningfully higher.
June 2018
While trade finance is among the oldest forms of institutionalized credit, it has only recently become an accessible market for most institutional investors. Providing high liquidity, good return premiums over cash, and a predictable risk profile, it can play a valuable role in portfolio strategy. However, as a fairly new option for most investors, its […]
May 2018
Not in the United States. As short rates have increased and the yield curve has flattened, US T-bills offer more appeal than they have in some time (and short-dated Treasuries even more so).
May 2018