No, we don’t think so. While euro area economic activity has weakened meaningfully, with real GDP growth falling to its lowest annual pace (1.1%) since 2013 in third quarter, strong equity returns aren’t dependent on robust economic growth. Ultimately, we continue to like the bloc as part of a risk-controlled overweight to global ex US equities funded from US equities.
December 2019
In 2019, returns were driven less by what went right than by what did not go wrong. We highlight ten themes for 2020, with a focus on key macro questions, emerging opportunities, and risks.
November 2019
As economic growth slows, manufacturing contracts, and major central banks start to ease monetary policy anew, investors need to consider what policy options the world has left in the event this slowdown becomes a recession. In this edition of VantagePoint, we look to the 1930s for some answers, while realizing that intervening changes to the global financial system rule out an exact repeat of that period.
October 2019
No, sterling-based investors should not change their currency hedge ratios or their allocations to sterling-denominated assets based on potential Brexit outcomes.
September 2019
Thoughtful decisions during chaotic environments are what separate the top-performing investors from everyone else. In this series, we review five important topics that should inform any plan to manage portfolios through equity market downturns.
September 2019
Equity market downturns are chaotic environments that are rarely short-lived—the best advice is to be prepared.
September 2019
Investors that have inflexible spending needs and large allocations to illiquid assets should plan how they will tackle the next downturn’s liquidity challenges.
September 2019
As investors prepare for the next equity market downturn, they should take a closer look at the benefits and limits of diversification.
September 2019